Game Projections - 12/29/08

Big East
Georgetown 73 Connecticut 83
Temple 63 Villanova 75
Cincinnati 72 Memphis 78

Other Top 25
North Carolina Central 45 Michigan 74
Louisiana-Lafayette 63 Tennessee 84
Portland State 70 Baylor 79
Central Connecticut State 55 Arizona State 75

Picks vs. Spread
Vermont -4 vs. Colorado State at Honolulu, HI
Niagara -4 vs. Murray State at Chattanooga, TN
Villanova -9 vs. Temple
Connecticut -6.5 vs. Georgetown
Central Michigan +22 @ Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette +27.5 @ Tennessee
Portland State +13 @ Baylor
Weber State +20 @ Arizona
Charleston +4 vs. Davidson
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Memphis
Ball State +10 @ UC Santa Barbara
Fresno State +4.5 @ Cal Poly
James Madison +8.5 vs. UTEP at Santa Clara, CA

PPI Rankings - 12/28/08

Big East teams are now bolded...

#1 North Carolina
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Pittsburgh
#4 Duke
#5 Connecticut
#6 Saint Mary's
#7 Wake Forest
#8 West Virginia
#9 Syracuse
#10 Clemson
#11 Creighton
#12 Arizona State
#13 Illinois
#14 Xavier
#15 Texas
#16 Butler
#17 Niagara
#18 California
#19 Illinois State
#20 Michigan State
#21 Gonzaga
#22 Marquette
#23 Texas A&M
#24 Villanova
#25 Tennessee
Others receiving votes: UNLV, Louisville, Stanford, Missouri, Florida State, Purdue, Dayton, Memphis, Ohio State, Utah State, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Brigham Young, Georgetown

Game Projections - 12/28/08

Big East:
Presbyterian 66 Marquette 81
Alcorn State 47 DePaul 67
Rutgers 69 North Carolina 94

Other Top 25:
Louisiana Tech 49 UCLA 77
Valparaiso 54 Purdue 76
High Point 46 Minnesota 74

Games vs. Spread: (Today 7-6-1, Overall 37-25-1, 59.5% percentage)
Eastern Michigan +22 @ Illinois
Northern Iowa -8.5 vs. Indiana State
UC Riverside +5.5 @ Denver
Loyola Marymount +23.5 @ New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech +26.5 @ UCLA
Montana +21.5 @ Washington
Illinois State -2.5 @ Missouri State
Valparaiso +25.5 @ Purdue
Western Kentucky +7.5 vs. Florida State at Miami, FL
Iowa State +12.5 @ Houston
Yale +17.5 @ Alabama
Rutgers +32 @ North Carolina
Creighton -12 vs. Wichita State
Coppin State +8 vs. Colorado

Christmas Rankings

The PPI would like to give you a holiday gift - an interim Top 25 rankings. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all:


#1 North Carolina
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Pittsburgh
#4 Duke
#5 Wake Forest
#6 Syracuse
#7 Clemson
#8 Arizona State
#9 Xavier
#10 Saint Mary's
#11 Connecticut
#12 Texas
#13 Illinois
#14 Butler
#15 Creighton
#16 Niagara
#17 Gonzaga
#18 Villanova
#19 Tennessee
#20 UNLV
#21 Missouri
#22 West Virginia
#23 Illinois State
#24 Texas A&M
#25 Ohio State
Others receiving votes: Marquette, California, Dayton, Memphis, Utah State, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Purdue, Michigan State, Brigham Young, Georgetown, UCLA, Boston College, Arizona, Stanford
Other notables: Louisville #43

PPI Rankings - 12/21/08

Lots of movement:

#1 North Carolina
#2 Pittsburgh
#3 Oklahoma
#4 Duke
#5 Clemson
#6 Syracuse
#7 Xavier
#8 (tie) Gonzaga
#8 (tie) Connecticut
#10 Arizona State
#11 Wake Forest
#12 Tennessee
#13 Missouri
#14 Saint Mary's
#15 UNLV
#16 Texas
#17 West Virginia
#18 Illinois State
#19 Illinois
#20 Texas A&M
#21 Villanova
#22 Butler
#23 California
#24 Oklahoma State
#25 Michigan State
Others receiving votes: Ohio State, Niagara, Creighton, Brigham Young, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida State, Georgetown, Dayton, Louisville, Boston College, Miami (OH), Memphis, Utah State

Want to Track a Team not in the Top 40?

If anyone has interest in tracking any team's ranking, even if that team is not in the Top 40, please reply to this thread and I will add that team to the weekly rankings with the note "Other Teams of Interest."

Game Projections - 12/20/08

Big East
Miami (OH) 69 West Virginia 72
Mount St. Mary's 63 #13 Georgetown 77
Minnesota 77 #9 Louisville 80
Bryant University 53 Rutgers 65
South Florida 66 Murray State 68
Providence 65 Boston College 74
#2 Connecticut 73 #7 Gonzaga 77
#11 Syracuse 76 #21 Memphis 78
Eastern Kentucky 63 Cincinnati 73
Delaware State 59 #14 Notre Dame 83
IUPUI 64 Seton Hall 76
Marist 62 St. John's 76

Top 25
Iona 51 #16 Ohio State 66
#22 Michigan State 65 #5 Texas 74
#1 North Carolina 95 Valparaiso 71
#6 Duke 71 #7 Xavier 72
Belmont 69 #19 Tennessee 85
#20 Davidson 73 #18 Purdue 76
Brigham Young 67 #17 Arizona State 73
Texas-Arlington 60 #24 Baylor 79
Virginia Commonwealth 64 #4 Oklahoma 79
Mercer 62 #12 UCLA 73

Games vs. Spread (Today 18-14, Overall 30-19, 61.2% accuracy)
Miami (OH) +8 @ West Virginia
Rice +12 @ Duquesne
Appalachian State +15.5 @ Kentucky
Minnesota +9 vs. Louisville at Glendale, AZ
Xavier +6 vs. Duke at East Ruthersford, NJ
Texas -6 vs. Michigan State at Houston, TX
Valparaiso +28 vs. North Carolina
Wofford +12 @ Georgia
Temple +9.5 @ Kansas
Murray State +1.5 vs. South Florida at Puerto Rico
UNLV -1 vs. Arizona
St. Bonaventure +1 @ Eastern Michigan
UC Santa Barbara +13 @ San Diego State
Boston College -4.5 vs. Providence
Wyoming -16.5 vs. Sacramento State
Hofstra +5.5 @ Massachusetts
Texas A&M PICK 'EM vs. LSU
Citadel +24.5 @ South Carolina
Pepperdine +15.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Wright State +2 vs. Oral Roberts at Puerto Rico
California -8.5 vs. Nevada
Syracuse +8 @ Memphis
Weber State +14 @ Utah
Denver +3 vs. Colorado State
UCF +15.5 vs. Florida at Jacksonville
Florida International +6 vs. South Alabama
Arkansas State +4 @ Arkansas-Little Rock
Portland +9.5 @ Oregon
Norfolk State +23.5 @ Missouri State
Eastern Washington +17.5 @ Washington
Montana +8 @ Portland State
Pacific -3 vs. Santa Clara

Game Projections 12/19/08

Big East
Western Carolina 69 Marquette 81 (Final: Western Carolina 77 Marquette 94)
Southern University 45 DePaul 65 (Final: Southern University 46 DePaul 83)

Other Top 25
Wake Forest 85 Richmond 77 (Final: Wake Forest 86 Richmond 79)

Picks vs. Spread (Today 1-1, Overall 12-5, 70.6%)
Charleston -16.5 vs. North Carolina-Wilmington
Western Carolina +16.5 @ Marquette

Game Projections - 12/18/08

Big East
Mississippi State 73 Cincinnati 81 (Cincinnati won by 12)
Mississippi 79 Louisville 80 (@ Cincinnati) (Louisville won by 9)

Top 25
Evansville 76 North Carolina 95 (North Carolina won by 18)
Texas Southern 46 Gonzaga 76 (Gonzaga won by 42)

Games vs. Spread: (Today: 8-1; Overall 11-4, 73.3% accuracy)
Evansville +29 @ North Carolina
UNC Greensboro +19.5 @ Kent State
Cincinnati -5 vs. Mississippi State
Samford -3.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Iona +3.5 @ Western Michigan
W Kentucky +4 @ South Alabama
North Texas +2.5 @ Louisiana-Lafayette
UC Riverside -2.5 vs. Montana
Northern Colorado +6.5 @ Fresno State

Game Projections - 12/17/08

Big East
Canisius 56 Syracuse 82 (Syracuse won by 22)
Jackson State 64 Providence 79 (Providence won by 14)
Liberty 76 DePaul 75 (Liberty lost by 1)
Siena 65 Pittsburgh 80 (Pittsburgh won by 13)

AP Top 25
UNC-Asheville 56 Duke 82 (Duke won by 43)
Citadel 62 Michigan State 81 (Michigan State won by 14)
Jacksonville 50 Ohio State 64 (Ohio State won by 13)
Arkansas-Little Rock 69 Memphis 81 (Memphis won by 8)
Loyola Marymount 46 UCLA 73 (UCLA won by 31)

Picks of the Day (overall 3-3, 50.0% accuracy)
Ohio +6 @ Marshall
Arkansas-Little Rock +21 @ Memphis
Loyola Marymount +30.5 @ UCLA
East Carolina +9.5 @ NC State
Jacksonville State +11 @ UAB
UNLV -14 vs. Santa Clara

Tennessee-Marquette & Andy Katz Upset Specials

Tennessee and Marquette are currently tied at 32-32 at halftime. According to my preliminary PPI calculations, Tennessee will win this game by 7 by the score of 85-78 (update 12:22 AM: Tennessee won 80-68). This means that the scoring must pick up significantly in the second half, and already there have been 5 points scored in 23 seconds, so we hope these teams believe in the PPI!

Andy Katz of ESPN had 3 upset specials for the week at halftime of the Tennessee-Marquette game. Let's review 'em:

1) East Carolina @ NC State (Wednesday) - The PPI projects NC State will win by 6; however, these 2 teams are 3 percentage points different in the rankings. Very feasible.

2) Oakland @ Michigan (Saturday) - We are not so sure about this one. Michigan is projected to win by 11. After beating Duke in Ann Arbor, we expect Michigan to win this game at Auburn Hills.

3) Miami (OH) @ West Virginia (Saturday) - We actually have Miami (OH) as the better team, but project WVU to win by 3 points. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, West Virginia is very injured and this game is officially then a toss-up.

Andy - two out of three ain't bad. We expect #3 to happen in PPI Land and we believe #1 is entirely possible.

PPI RANKINGS 12/14/08 - Back from hiatus

There were lots of movement in the rankings this week. On Saturday, there is a huge doubleheader between #3 Xavier against #6 Duke (2 PM CBS), followed by #5 Gonzaga against #14 UConn. Also, Louisville (#37) and Georgetown (#28) hit the "other receiving votes" category for the first time, and we believe at the PPI that these rankings will only go up. The biggest mover into the Top 25 was #17 Creighton (up from #41) and the biggest drop out of the Top 25 was Memphis (who dropped from #17 to #32). Here are the rankings after Sunday's games


#1 North Carolina
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Xavier
#4 Pittsburgh
#5 Gonzaga
#6 Duke
#7 Syracuse
#8 Texas
#9 Clemson
#10 Wake Forest
#11 Arizona State
#12 Villanova
#13 Missouri
#14 Connecticut
#15 Illinois
#16 Brigham Young
#17 Creighton
#18 Butler
#19 Miami (OH)
#20 Dayton
#21 Tennessee
#22 California
#23 Wisconsin
#24 West Virginia
#25 Niagara
Others receiving votes: Davidson, Baylor, Georgetown, Texas A&M, Illinois State, UNLV, Memphis, Boston College, Florida State, Saint Mary's, Ohio State, Louisville, Arizona, Minnesota, Illinois-Chicago

Game Predictions: 12/10/08

Xavier 71 Ohio 58 (update: Xavier 78 Ohio 56)
Washington State 62 Gonzaga 68 (update: Washington State 52 Gonzaga 74)
Indiana 64 TCU 62 (update: Indiana 66 TCU 56)

Big East Games
Princeton 58 Rutgers 59 (update: Princeton 44 Rutgers 49)
DePaul 65 Morgan State 52 (update: DePaul 75 Morgan State 79)

Game Predictions - 12/9/08

In a PPI first, here are game projections for tonight's games...I will post the results and my record based on these projections.

Jimmy V Classic: New York, NY
West Virginia 75 Davidson 73 (update: West Virginia 65 Davidson 68)
Texas 73 Villanova 71 (update: Texas 67 Villanova 58)

Ball State 77 Purdue 80 (update: Ball State 39 Purdue 68)
Virginia Tech 71 Georgia 70 (update: Virginia Tech 66 Georgia 67)
Iowa 69 Northern Iowa 61 (update: Iowa 65 Northern Iowa 46)
Iowa State 68 Drake 63 (update: Iowa State 63 Drake 66)

First Official PPI Rankings - December 7, 2008

Through games of Sunday, December 7th:
#1 North Carolina
#2 Oklahoma
#3 Duke
#4 Pittsburgh
#5 Gonzaga
#6 Clemson
#7 Syracuse
#8 Arizona State
#9 Connecticut
#10 Wake Forest
#11 Xavier
#12 Tennessee
#13 Illinois
#14 Missouri
#15 Dayton
#16 Texas
#17 Memphis
#18 Miami (OH)
#19 UNLV
#20 Butler
#21 Baylor
#22 Illinois State
#23 Florida State
#24 Villanova
#25 Boston College
Others receiving votes: Kansas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Charleston, Michigan State, California, Maryland, Minnesota, Georgetown, Texas A&M, Brigham Young, Northwestern, Creighton, Marquette, Niagara

Duke wins big at Purdue - Purdue fans disappointed

In somewhat of a surprise, Duke actually had a non-conference pure road game in early December at Purdue's Mackey Arena, and they more than shut up the critics and disappointed many Purdue fans (see picture on left from Vegas '07) in a huge 16 point win. Kyle Singler had a monster game for Duke (20 points and 12 boards) and his domination in the game overshadowed the fact that Purdue had a bad shooting night. Duke surprised me with their defense as they are far more athletic this year, mainly due to the fact that Nolan Smith is now starting in the place of junior guard Greg Paulus and the emergence of now healthy center Brian Zoubek defensively. Duke continues its Big Ten road swing, as they play at Michigan on Saturday. Sophomore standout Robbie Hummel of Purdue had a decent game (15 points, 8 boards), but many of these points were in 'garbage time.'

PPI Rankings - As of 11/30/08

Many changes occurred from last week to this week, and of course, UNC is now #1 after dominating a few games.

#1 North Carolina
#2 Duke
#3 Pittsburgh
#4 Xavier
#5 Connecticut
#6 Oklahoma
#7 Tennessee
#8 Clemson
#9 Arizona State
#10 Syracuse
#11 Illinois
#12 Gonzaga
#13 Wake Forest
#14 Florida State
#15 Texas
#16 Missouri
#17 Memphis
#18 Illinois State
#19 Vanderbilt
#20 California
#21 Villanova
#22 Oklahoma State
#23 UAB
#24 North Carolina State
#25 Florida
Others receiving votes: Dayton, Mississippi, Nebraska, Baylor, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Texas A&M, Utah, Stanford, Seton Hall, Davidson, Butler, Michigan State, Purdue, UNLV

North Carolina is for Real

I have always made it apparent that I do not have a love for the ACC, but I have to say it - #1 North Carolina is really good. I do not expect UNC to lose more than one or two games in their ACC conference season. If they were in the Big East, they'd likely have a few more losses, but they still would be the best or second best in the conference.A big test will occur when they play #5 Michigan State in front of a packed Ford Field (a warmup for the facility as they will have the National Championship this year).

What I've been most impressed with is not Ty Lawson's speed, Wayne Ellington's threes, or Tyler Hansborough's domination (including jumpers going as far back as the 3-point line), but it is the team defense. The D has far improved from last year, when they were put in a HUGE hole in the National Semifinal against eventual National Champion Kansas last year. Even though they gave up ten threes to Notre Dame guard Kyle McAlarney, the game was never in doubt. For a team to beat UNC, they will need to play good defense, be able to drive inside, get easy fast break baskets against a speedy UNC team, and force Hansborough into foul trouble. This is a tough task to ask of any team.

Notre Dame Eeks Out an 81-80 Victory over Texas

In the semis of the Maui Invitational, #8 Notre Dame squeaked out an 81-80, as J.J. Abrams of #6 Texas almost made a last-second three pointer from 3/4 of the length of the floor after Notre Dame standout and Big East preseason Player of the Year Luke Harangody missed 2 free throws with approximately 4 seconds left. As Abrams' shot missed, Notre Dame's head coach Mike Brey doubled over with a smile on his face and Texas coach Rick Barnes also could not contain his laughter, as this was just a flat-out, well-played game on both sides. Once again, for Notre Dame, it was the Harangody/Kyle McAlarney show, as Harangody had 29 points and 13 boards, while McAlarney chipped in w/ 5 more threes. With the win, Notre Dame likely has a date with #1 North Carolina who will be playing Oregon in the second semifinal of the tournament.

The Big East continues its domination early on in the basketball season. In other games, Villanova and Pittsburgh also logged in with victories.

UConn wins Paradise Jam

UConn started out the season on the right foot by defeating #25 Wisconsin 76-57 and winning the Virgin Island's Paradise Jam. With the victory, UConn is now 5-0 and takes a 4-day break before playing Bryant University on Saturday. Hasheem Thabeet was the MVP of the tournament - although he had only 3 blocks tonight, he re-directed many errant Wisconsin shots. UConn's defense was extraordinary tonight...countless steals and they just put so much pressure on the Badgers that their fundamentally sound team just could not handle it. AJ Price still does not look like himself, but I expect that to change by mid-season when he gets over the ACL injury mentally. All in all, great victory by UConn and expect to see them in the Top 5 of the PPI next weekend.

Big East Continues Its Domination

Once again, a Big East team knocks down a ranked team. In this case, Syracuse has just upset #18 Florida 89-83. Early on, the Big East has just taken down ranked team after ranked team. In other Big East games, Notre Dame just pasted Tom Crean's Indiana team. Crean will have a lot of work to clean up after former coach Kelvin Sampson left the program amid NCAA violations. Kyle McAlerney, possibly the best 3-point shooter in the Big East, drilled 6 threes in the 38 point blowout.

PPI Top 25: 11/24/08

Here is the preliminary PPI Top 25...note, these won't be official until Dec 8th when the first official PPI gets released.

#1 Duke
#2 Clemson
#3 Xavier
#4 UAB
#5 Memphis
#6 North Carolina
#7 Connecticut
#8 Missouri
#9 Oklahoma
#10 Oklahoma State
#11 Seton Hall
#12 UNLV
#13 Tennessee
#14 Pittsburgh
#15 Illinois
#16 Creighton
#17 Florida
#18 Illinois State
#19 Siena
#20 Temple
#21 Arizona State
#22 Villanova
#23 Florida State
#24 Kent State
#25 Butler

Michigan upsets #4 UCLA

Was I right about John Beilein? It was a typical UCLA vs. John Beilein game: low-scoring, plenty of defense, and from Michigan's perspective, a lot of effective backdoor cuts. Michigan goes on and plays Duke tomorrow in the championship game of this preseason tourney. If you think Duke will have a cakewalk, you are dead wrong. This is the exact style of basketball that eliminated the Blue Devils from the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament last year, as they got eliminated by West Virginia. UCLA will play Southern Illinois in the consolation game tomorrow. It was not a good day for the PAC 10, as both UCLA and USC lost.

Seton Hall nips #20 USC

This was something I definitely didn't see coming. Seton Hall was projected to finish #13 out of 16 in the Big East. Yet, they went down to Puerto Rico and defeated #20 USC by 2 points. It is not farfetched to possibly see 10 teams coming out of the Big East and going to the NCAA Tournament. I did not get a chance to watch this game, so I won't be able to comment on the game or the players of Seton Hall, but I'm sure to catch a few Seton Hall games, thanks to my DirecTV ESPN Full Court package. Seton Hall is now 3-0, and we will see what they do in the next few games.

Another team to watch out for in the Big East is Providence. After underperforming again with Coach Tim Welsh, the Friars went out and got Keno Davis, formerly of Drake. While Providence lost their first game to Northeastern, I believe this team will start gelling around late January and February and become dangerous, once they learn Davis' system. The Friars return senior Geoff McDermott, who I believe is capable of a double-double every night at 6'8" and 235 pounds.

Duke Destroys Southern Illinois 83-58

Well, I was wrong. Coach Mike Krzyzewski apparently had one hell of a halftime conversation with his team and Duke's intensity picked up big time after halftime. They played better defense and scored 54 points in the second half. Duke had many drives into the lane and ferocious dunks. Swingman Gerald Henderson was the catalyst for the intensity lift and had a few thunderous dunks in the 25-point victory over the SIU Salukis. Duke definitely looked like a #5 team in the second half and the second-half run eerily looked like the 56-13 run that UConn had against Hartford on Monday (i.e. night and day).

Welcome to the PPI...Musings about Y2K Coaches vs. Cancer Classic

Welcome to your one-stop shop for college basketball analysis. Over the winter and early spring of 2008-09, I will be watching literally hundreds of games, while constantly updating my 1-342 college rankings, now known as the PREMiere Power Index. The first PPI will be released after December 7th's games.

Yes, it is only November 20th, but there are a ton of good games on already. Currently, the Y2K Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic is being held in Madison Square Garden, featuring four traditional NCAA superpowers: Duke, UCLA, Michigan, and mid-major Southern Illinois, who's done some damage in the NCAA. The early matchup (which I'm currently watching) features Duke and Southern Illinois.

An early observation (non-biased of course) is that Duke is not playing like a #5 team in the country. They struggled at home against Rhode Island last Sunday - for the record Rhody was picked to finish 9th in the Atlantic 10 conference. The thing that will plague Duke this year is once again the lack of frontcourt play. Yes, they have a healthy 7'1" Brian Zoubek (hailing from the "Armpit of America" - New Jersey), but he can't do the job himself. Meanwhile, Kyle Singler is not a natural power forward, he is more of a "European" type of forward. If you put him against a natural rebounding guy like Blake Griffin or Luke Harangody (GODY!!!), he would get eaten alive and would get in significant foul trouble. Moreover, this team will always get in trouble away from the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium, where they are the recipient of some quite ridiculous presents from officials.

The second matchup is Ben Howland's UCLA Bruins against John Beilein's Michigan Wolverines. UCLA is a team that will always be there because they are groomed to play defense first. Howland, even in his Pittsburgh days, won games when his team would score in the 50s and 60s, due to the fact that his team's defense would not give up more than 40-50 points. Yes, the team is younger, but they will make the Sweet 16, like they do every year due to Howland's coaching. Meanwhile, on the other side, Michigan had a very subpar last year, but this is Coach Beilein's second year on this team to get his system implemented. Look for Michigan to have a big-time bounceback season.

So, fasten your seatbelts. This will be a great year. Let the good times roll...